The weekend’s La Liga previews, 2013/14 – round 1

Saturday 17th August

Real Sociedad v Getafe
After an unlikely 4th placed finish last season, Real Sociedad (5/6) lost their coach, Montanier, to Rennes and best midfielder to Real Madrid- who paid Illamendi's buyout clause. Hardly ideal, but the club messed their now former French coach about with regards to a new contract - and a buyout clause, well, what could they do.

Anyway, while La Real still have the players to make a top 6 finish, it remains to be seen how their small squad will cope with the demands of Champions League football. Last time they qualified for UEFA's flagship tournament, in 2003, not very well was the answer.

Little to set the pulse racing with summer changes at Getafe (19/5), but they do seem to well against Real Sociedad - drawing at San Sebastian last season and winning at the Alfonso Perez - and I'm going to see if they can get a draw or better this weekend.

Worth a punt: Getafe + 1 goal (19/20)


Valladolid v Athletic Bilbao
Coach Djukic has left Valladolid to join Valencia, while Bielsa has parted with Athletic Bilbao, replaced by Ernesto Valverde - who was at Valencia last season.
Merry go round aside, what does alll of this mean? My guess: Valladolid (17/20) will struggle, while Athletic (17/10) will prosper in the league without European competition to tire their limited squad out.

Given that the midfielder is good in the tackle and an excellent free kick taker who should weigh in with 7-10 goals this season, the addition of Benat from Betis should prove to be a very good move for Athletic. All in all, I think that Athletic will finish in the top 6 and maybe the top 4.
As for today's game, well, Athletic drew 2-2 here last season, so if I think they are now stronger and that the home team has weakened, Athletic draw no bet is surely worth a punt.

Recommendation: Athletic - draw no bet (19/20)


Valencia v Malaga
Valencia's coaching changes are catalogued in the preview above, while I'm sure you all know that Pellegrini has left Malaga for Man City - replaced by former Real Madrid coach Bernd Schuster. As for player changes, Soldado has left, replaced by Helder Postiga in a cut price deal, while Isco, Toulalan and Demichelis have all left the Anchovies for a more consistent pay packet and better chance of winning trophies.

While Jonas was more consistent last season than he was in 2011/12, the inevitable loss of Soldado makes you wonder who'll score the goals for Los Che in 2013/14.
Positga's signing is better than nothing, but I'd prefer to assess Valencia (6/10) and their new forward in my own viewing before placing a bet on them.

Former Che player Djukic has achieved good pre-season results and I forecast a home win against Malaga (5/1) - who Valencia defeated 5-1 here last season - but the 4/5 that was available a few weeks ago is now 6/10 and too low for me to recommend, I think.
If you fancy it, we have a headline offer of Postiga to score and Valencia to win at 6/4. Otherwise, you can always bet in-play.

Sunday 18th August

Barcelona v Levante
Most importantly, our best wishes to Tito Vilanova from all at William Hill - we hope he has a speedy recovery and encounters no further problems with his illness.
Now, of course, former Newell's Old Boys coach Gerardo Martino - a man who played attacking football in a safety first league - is the new Barcelona (1/10) coach.
In other news, Thiago, Villa and Abidal have left the club, with Neymar coming in from Santos on a record club deal.

I should expect the young Brazilian will spend a lot of time on the ground while he adapts to Spanish football, but he is an exciting talent and should be a joy to watch long term.
As for today's game, well, it's unlikely that Levante (20/1) will win but very plausible that we'll have witnessed two goals before half time. I'm certainly willing to bet that repeating this tactic over the course of a season will pay off.
Sadly, the price has lessened somewhat (was 5/6), but you can always chance waiting out a couple of minutes in-play for a better price if you wish.

Recommendation: Over 1.5 first half goals (4/6)


Real Madrid v Real Betis
Mourinho out, the more reserved, more controllable and better behaved Ancelotti in. On the playing side at Real Madrid (1/6), notably, Higuain and Albiol have left, with Isco and Illamendi coming in.
Real, apparently, will focus on youth long term. We'll see how they get on with that, but the news signings are a step in that direction - as is bringing back Carvajal from Leverkusen (for more than they sold him for, naturally) and calling up forwards Jese and Morata from the B team, Castilla.

Along with loanees Campbell and Pavon, Benat has left Betis (16/1). Verdu is their only notable signing, joining from Espanyol. Betis, I think, will struggle to come anywhere close to repeating last season's 6th placed finish if their European campaign lasts beyond the group stages.

In conclusion, Betis have scored in their last three visits to the Bernabeu and last six games against Real Madrid, but it's only 6/4 for both to score and Real to defeat Betis so I've chosen a different bet.
Indeed, like Barcelona games, I expect this bet will win a lot more than it'll lose over the course of the season.

Recommendations: Over 1.5 first half goals (4/5)


Osasuna v Granada
Traditionally hard to beat on home soil, you'd expect Osasuna (23/20) to defeat Granada in Pamplona. However, low scoring Osasuna sold their best striker, Sola, to Athletic Bilbao and, as such, it's hard to see who'll score their goals this season.
Granada (5/2) have employed Riki and Piti - both adept at scoring goals with the former having netted thirteen for Deportivo last season and the latter eighteen for Rayo Vallecano. Also, Granada defeated Osasuna home and away in 2012/13.
Well, you'd fancy under 2.5 goals here, but it's the first week and I'm having a small punt on an upset instead.

Worth a punt: Granada (5/2)


Sevilla v Atletico Madrid
As I expect you all know, Negredo, Navas and Medel have all left Sevilla, while Falcao parted company with Atletico Madrid to join the uber-rich Monaco.
Atletico (17/10), for whom Diego Costa shone for in 2012/13, often in Falcao's absence, have made the impressive signings of David Villa and Leo Baptistao, along with securing the services of former Malaga defender Martin Demichelis.

All in all, while Sevilla have brought in forwards Gameiro and Bacca to complement on-loan winger Marin, they've lost their best striker, winger and midfielder - and given the quality of the departed and likelihood that the new Sevilla attackers will need time to gel, coupled with the fact that Atletico won here last season, my opinion is that Simeone and his charges will get at least a draw here, probably all three points.

Recommendation: Atletico - draw no bet (4/5)

Monday 19th August

Rayo Vallecano v Elche
Along with star player Leo Baptistao, nearly all of Rayo Vallecano's (13/10) midfielders and forwards have left, making them hard to judge at present.
Elche (23/10), Segunda champions in 2012/13, have brought in a few players with top flight experience, but still look likely candidates for immediate relegation.

With Rayo pretty strong on home soil last season, I feel I have to recommend a home win against a promoted team at a fair 13/10 price, but be warned that this is largely a different Rayo team that we're dealing with.

Recommendation: Rayo (13/10)


Almeria v Villarreal
Whilst I have nothing against Almeria (17/10), it's nice to see the Yellow Submarines of Villarreal back in the top flight. Of course, nearly all of the players you will remember from a couple of years ago have left, but they look capable of avoiding an immediate return to Segunda football.

The Segunda's top scorer, Charles, has left Almeria and that gives Villarreal (17/10) the advantage, but its promoted team v promoted team and a hard call in the ninety minute market.
My temptation is to opt for both teams to score because it let me down in the Segunda last season, but with Charles now a Celta player, it loses a little credibility.

In conclusion, a 1-1 draw is my guess (priced at 11/2), but given that the last five clashes between these two have finished 1-0, 1-0, 1-1, 0-0 and 2-0, under 2.5 goals looks like the bet.
However, the price about the unders and has been backed in and I'll leave it alone, but it does look like the best bet if you don't know what to pick.

Recommendation: Under 2.5 goals (8/13)


Celta v Espanyol
Surviving on the last day of the season, Celta (13/10) have now turned to Luis Enrique to advance their ambition and stabilise the club. Despite losing star forward Aspas to Liverpool and the Premier League, the former Roma and Barcelona B coach has acted swiftly by bringing in a plethora of Barca B players, either on permanent or loan deals.

Whether this just makes Celta a really good Segunda team or propels them up the Primera table remains to be seen, but against an Espanyol (21/10) side that has lost their best attacker, Verdu, and doesn't travel well, we've got to give the new Celta the nod on home soil.

Recommendation: Celta (13/10)

Insajderi Prognoziraju - Spain, Primera Division - 1. kolo / Nebojša Miličić (Real M)

Insajderi Prognoziraju - Netherlands, Eredivisie - 3. kolo / Nebojša Gudelj (Breda)

17.08. (Sat) 18:30 Swansea - Manchester United

Manchester United begin their first Premier League campaign without Alex Ferguson with a tough trip to Swansea City on Saturday.

Ferguson elected to bring his 27-year reign at Old Trafford to an end at the conclusion of a title-winning 2012-13 season, and played a part in David Moyes' appointment to the unenviable task of following in his footsteps.

The former Everton boss will be given no easy introduction, however, as United make the daunting trip to the Liberty Stadium.

The reigning champions were held to a 1-1 draw at the Welsh ground last season, with Patrice Evra's opener cancelled out by a goal from bargain attacker Michu.

Michael Laudrup's men have been in excellent form in pre-season, triumphing over Malmo in their Europa League tie and winning all seven of their matches in the off-season, scoring 28 goals along the way.

But Moyes boasts an impressive record at the Liberty Stadium since Swansea's promotion, having led Everton to a 3-0 win there last season and a 2-0 victory in 2011-12.

The Scot's chances of repeating those feats are somewhat harmed by a lengthy injury list, though.

Michael Carrick (eye) and Javier Hernandez (thigh) both missed out on midweek international duty after picking up injuries, while Nani and Ashley Young (both minor knocks) did not feature in the recent 2-0 Community Shield win over Wigan.

Wayne Rooney is seemingly unlikely to feature having missed almost the entirety of United’s pre-season, although he managed to play over an hour of England’s midweek friendly win over Scotland.

Uncertainty remains over a return date for Darren Fletcher as his battle with ulcerative colitis continues. Rafael, meanwhile, will serve the final game of his three-match ban for a red card received against Chelsea in May.

Swansea currently have just one injury concern, with Jonathan de Guzman ruled out of the fixture after picking up a head injury during training with the Netherlands.

But that blow is unlikely to dent the hosts' chances too severely, with the likes of Wilfried Bony, Jonjo Shelvey, Jordi Amat and Jose Canas all available as a result of a productive transfer window.

Despite the positivity over the many arrivals, however, Danish boss Laudrup has urged caution over expecting too much from the new recruits.

"Everyone has talked a lot about the transfers," said Laudrup. "We need to see a few games and go past the transfer window first before I can talk about the season ahead.

"Everybody wants someone who can score goals. They are difficult to find and are often very expensive.

"Goals are the most important thing in football. Goals mean points, and points mean you can reach your targets.

"Overall, my target would be to consolidate Swansea as a mid-table team. If we could do that it would be absolutely fantastic."

Insajderi Prognoziraju - Greece, Superleague - 1. kolo / Željko Kalajdžić (OFI)

17.08. (Sat) 16:00 Arsenal - Aston Villa

Arsenal will look to put their transfer troubles behind them with an opening day Premier League victory against Aston Villa on Saturday.

Arsene Wenger's side have been continually frustrated in the transfer market, missing out on several of their reported targets including Gonzalo Higuain and Clement Grenier.

The Gunners are still said to be chasing the likes of Liverpool's Luis Suarez, but they have made just one signing since last season ended - French forward Yaya Sanogo.

The 20-year-old - who joined on a free transfer from Ligue 2 outfit Auxerre - did impress during the club's pre-season campaign, although he is suffering from a hamstring injury currently.

Headlining the exits at the Emirates Stadium in the close-season was Russian attacker Andrey Arshavin, while Gervinho, Andre Santos, Denilson and Marouane Chamakh have also left the club.

Arsenal - who finished fourth last term and will be involved in the UEFA Champions League for a 16th season in a row - have enjoyed a good lead up to the campaign, winning five of their seven friendlies.

France international striker Olivier Giroud has scored eight goals in pre-season and showed signs of improvement, while Theo Walcott added four.

Walcott - who was the club's top Premier League scorer in 2012-13 with 14 goals - enjoyed more of a regular role as striker following the departure of Robin van Persie and is in good form.

The 24-year-old scored in England's 3-2 friendly win over Scotland on Wednesday but is a doubt for his club's opener after leaving the field with a knee problem in the latter stages.

"I had to come off with a little bit of a swollen knee so fingers crossed I can rest up and I'll be alright for Saturday. This is a big year for Arsenal and myself," Walcott said.

One Arsenal player who is likely to miss is midfielder Mikel Arteta, who suffered a thigh injury in training this week.

Arteta's compatriot, Santi Cazorla, scored one and set up another in Spain's 2-0 friendly win against Ecuador on Wednesday and is sure to be in Wenger's starting XI as long as he returns from South America unscathed.

After being sucked into a relegation fight last season, Paul Lambert's Aston Villa will welcome the beginning of the new campaign.

Villa's best piece of business during the summer saw them keep hold of in-demand Belgian forward Christian Benteke.
The 22-year-old - who scored 19 goals in his debut Premier League season - handed in a transfer request but later revoked it to the delight of the Villa Park faithful.

Lambert has been active in the transfer window, bringing in Jores Okore, Aleksandar Tonev, Antonio Luna, Nicklas Helenius and Leandro Bacuna to bolster the depth of his squad.

Meanwhile, Jean Makoun returned to France while Richard Dunne and Brett Holman left the club on free transfers.
Villa - who finished 15th last term - saw their pre-season start poorly, with four draws and one loss, but they won their last four, including a 3-2 win against Malaga last week.

Arsenal have a good recent record against Villa, winning three of the last four Premier League meetings, but they will hope to avoid a repeat of their 2-1 home defeat to the Midlanders in May 2011.

Thomas Vermaelen, Nacho Monreal (both back) and Abou Diaby (knee) will definitely miss the game, while Bacary Sagna and Aaron Ramsey (both ankle) are also in doubt for Arsenal.

Villa's bill of health is cleaner, although Charles N'Zogbia (Achilles) will not feature.

17.08. (Sat) 13:45 Liverpool - Stoke City

Liverpool face an early progress test when their second season under Brendan Rodgers kicks off against Stoke City on Saturday.

The Merseyside club finished a disappointing seventh last term, but lost just three games in the second half of their Premier League campaign and will hope to extend that form into 2013-14.
Stoke have failed to register a single Premier League goal in five visits to Anfield, but have taken points on three occasions courtesy of 0-0 draws - including in both of the last two seasons.

The challenge they pose to Rodgers' men this time around will be vastly different, however, following the dismissal of former boss Tony Pulis and arrival of Mark Hughes in his stead.

The Welshman has allowed several stalwarts of the Pulis era to leave, with Rory Delap, Matthew Upson and Dean Whitehead all released upon the expiry of their contracts.

And he has put his own stamp on the squad with the summer acquisitions of Juan Agudelo, Marc Muniesa and Erik Pieters.

Liverpool are also likely to field an unfamiliar line-up, having brought in Simon Mignolet, Iago Aspas, Kolo Toure and Luis Alberto during the transfer window, while Jamie Carragher's absence is sure to be felt following his retirement.

The hosts will be without Luis Suarez as the striker serves the remainder of his 10-match ban for biting, and have doubts over the fitness of Daniel Agger and Martin Skrtel ahead of the game, although Rodgers expects the central-defensive duo to be available.

However, Daniel Sturridge is likely to command a starting berth having proven his fitness with a brief friendly appearance against Celtic and a behind-closed-doors outing against Newcastle earlier this week.

And Rodgers has no doubts that the forward can deliver following the ankle injury he sustained while on international duty with England in May.

"He's worked tirelessly with the medical group. As a team, they've got him back. He's not 100 per cent fit yet, but for me Daniel Sturridge is a player that even if he's 70 or 80 per cent fit, he'll be right up there as one of the top strikers," the manager said.

By contrast, Stoke have just one injury worry ahead of their opening fixture, with Brek Shea sidelined by a leg injury.

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